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This year I don't even get head shots to help my clairvoyance kick in. It's all stills of them running so I can't really get a good lock on fluidity of their gait. I don't see any roman noses. They're really tightening down on any kind of indicator but sheer specs and specs have a way of falling to their deaths at the Kentucky Derby.
The first horse that pricked up some brain cells for me was Mylute, whose bloodline is pretty heavy to sprinters for this race, but...
Giant Finish has a slice of the nobel convexity in his face, has great bloodlines and doesn't seem to be underwater from effort. This could be because he isn't making an effort. Or it could be that he has not shown his stuff in public.
Revolutionary, despite the low odds, looks quite solid.
But... dammit... I think I'm rooting for Oxbow. He's a goofball. I got to see a snippet of someone attempting to breeze him. LOL And he's a roan.
I never pay attention to the owners or the trainers or the jockeys, except insofar as they can shed some light on the horse's personality. I really do pretty much have to be there to do my winner picking thing for real, but I can't be there. I didn't look at any of these horses before today, have no friends in there to root for, and am heavily handicapped by not being there. I am able to pick the winner of a race as they are walking out onto the track, before they go to the gate. As long as I don't think anyone is betting money on what I'm saying, I never miss. No. Really. I pick the winner every time... with that one proviso, and in that narrow window between walking onto the track and getting in the gate. It feels more solid if I have been able to observe them in the paddock, but that is not a necessary component.
One thing that creeps me out is how many of the horses today look like they are running downhill. This is because they are not full grown. In a lot of horses it is quite visible that their butts are taller than their withers. I would never run a horse in that stage of development. Too much pressure on the forehand... and at these speeds and in this company... well... I see shattered cannon bones. I can't think of a thing people do on horses where it is not best to keep them from weighting to the forehand. You can't have them back on their hindquarters at a dead run, but neither can you have all their force and weight pounding on those front legs... even if they can hold up under it. They lose too much speed digging out from that in every stride. Balance and grace are vital, vital, vital in a racehorse.
It's why sometimes you see some little runty thing that looks more like a deer under saddle beating a pack of oats-inhaling freight trains. When those monsters get to the last turn their strides are trying to shorten instead of lengthen. Very hard to win then. That's why we have so many come-from-behind winners in horse racing. The ones who don't pound themselves into that bad situation can lengthen their strides and pass everyone. This is where the jockey's judgement is crucial, and why it's best they have experience with the horse they're riding. The trainer has to tell them, but the trainer also has to be able to take advice from them, or... else. But, I don't care about them much. I care about the horses.
And just on likability alone, I think I'm rootin' for Oxbow.
Old Uncle Dave says it's pouring at Churchill Downs right now. Swell. This is better than the heat, but a lot of horses can't do mud in the face.
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WATCH....
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Just heard Gary Stevens admitting that he's learned to let Oxbow do what he wants. That's a very good sign. He got beat pretty badly last time because he didn't let his horse do his thing. This is the kind of stuff that is crucial. It's why experience and humility are so important. You have to learn which horses are wise about their bodies and which are idiots. You can't let an idiot have his way if you want to win, but you have to let the talented maniac strut his stuff or you lose. Just think if no one thought to let SECRETARIAT do his thing.
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